Difference between revisions of "Optimum Morph Level"
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* Success probability is linear between 300 (20%) and 500 (50%) and linear again between 500 and 999 (100%). | * Success probability is linear between 300 (20%) and 500 (50%) and linear again between 500 and 999 (100%). | ||
| − | * Expected fail levels is (1000 - level) / 10. I'm aware that this is slightly more than observed, but | + | * Expected fail levels is (1000 - level) / 10. I'm aware that this is slightly more than observed, but shouldn't be more than 10 levels or so. |
Let | Let | ||
* S(x) be the expected levels you do if you first try morph at level x | * S(x) be the expected levels you do if you first try morph at level x | ||
| − | * p(x) is probability of | + | * p(x) is probability of success at level x |
* f(x) is number of fail levels | * f(x) is number of fail levels | ||
| Line 20: | Line 20: | ||
( Note that you do f(x) "half-xp" levels so effectively you only "lose" f(x) levels. ) | ( Note that you do f(x) "half-xp" levels so effectively you only "lose" f(x) levels. ) | ||
| − | We can just calculate the above for various x. For simplicity, assume S(some sufficiently high level) is | + | We can just calculate the above for various x. For simplicity, assume S(some sufficiently high level) is known. Below, I use S(500) to be roughly 550 (since you expect to take 2 attempts to morph, so 50 lost levels). |
| − | + | * S(430) ~ 450 * 0.4 + (1 - 0.4) * [S(480) + 50] ~ 530 [Since success probability at 430 is roughly 0.4)] | |
| − | |||
| − | * S(430) ~ 450 * 0.4 + (1 - | ||
* S(370) = 370 * 0.3 * [S(430) + 60] * 0.7 ~ 530 | * S(370) = 370 * 0.3 * [S(430) + 60] * 0.7 ~ 530 | ||
* S(300) = 300 * 0.2 + [S(370) + 70] * 0.8 ~ 540 | * S(300) = 300 * 0.2 + [S(370) + 70] * 0.8 ~ 540 | ||
Revision as of 11:43, 18 April 2012
If you're trying to maximize your lord stats you should worship a gain-boosting deity and automorph. This article is for those that are trying to morph as quickly as possible.
This is an attempt to calculate the optimum Morph level. Scroll down for the bottom line if you don't care for the math.
Assumptions:
- Success probability is linear between 300 (20%) and 500 (50%) and linear again between 500 and 999 (100%).
- Expected fail levels is (1000 - level) / 10. I'm aware that this is slightly more than observed, but shouldn't be more than 10 levels or so.
Let
- S(x) be the expected levels you do if you first try morph at level x
- p(x) is probability of success at level x
- f(x) is number of fail levels
Then:
S(x) = p(x) * x + (1 - p(x)) [f(x) + S(x + f(x))]
( Note that you do f(x) "half-xp" levels so effectively you only "lose" f(x) levels. )
We can just calculate the above for various x. For simplicity, assume S(some sufficiently high level) is known. Below, I use S(500) to be roughly 550 (since you expect to take 2 attempts to morph, so 50 lost levels).
- S(430) ~ 450 * 0.4 + (1 - 0.4) * [S(480) + 50] ~ 530 [Since success probability at 430 is roughly 0.4)]
- S(370) = 370 * 0.3 * [S(430) + 60] * 0.7 ~ 530
- S(300) = 300 * 0.2 + [S(370) + 70] * 0.8 ~ 540
Bottom Line
Morph early and often.
- Optimum morph level is somewhere around 370. Could be 400. Could be 350.
- TNL/worship etc. don't matter.
- Difference between morphing at 300 and 400 and 500 is not more than 10-15 levels. So it isn't all that important when you morph, as long as you do it early.
- Expected levels you do at hero is roughly 550.
